A total of 543 seats are up for a contest in Lok Sabha Elections 2019. The voting will take place from April 11 to May 19. The Lok Sabha Election will be held in seven phases across the country and the results will be announced on 23rd May. Who will get the magic mark of 272 is something we need to wait and watch.
C Voter Poll Analysis
As per latest C voter poll Narendra Modi led National Democratic Alliance could win 264 seats as compared to 141 for United Progressive Alliance. The poll predicts that the Modi could sweep a majority of parliamentary seats starting 11th April. Other parties are expected to get around 138 seats. The BJP is expected to get 220 seats on its own and remaining 44 through its allies.
If there is no Grand alliance in UP - NDA will get 307 seats and UPA will get 139; other parties will get 97.
In UP under the SP-BSP-RLD alliance, 47 seats out of 80 could be won. BJP is expected to win 29 seats.
Predicted vote share Uttar Pradesh -
SP - BSP --- 43%
BJP --- 41%
Congress --- 10%
If NDA gets into a post poll alliance with the South parties like Telangana Rashtriya Samiti (+ 16 seats) , YSR Congress (+ 11 seats), along with other parties like Mizo National Front (MNF) and Biju Janata Dal (BJD), the NDA tally may reach 301. Congress alone with get 86 seats and another 55 with its allies.
If case the UPA goes in for a post-poll alliance with parties such as Trinamool Congress (TMC), All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF), Left Democratic Front (LDF), MGB (Mahagathbandhan in UP), its total count will go up to 226.
Where is BJP expected to make a major chunk of seats from?
2019
|
2014
| |
Bihar
|
36
|
14
|
Gujarat
|
24
|
26
|
Karnataka
|
16
|
17
|
Madhya Pradesh
|
24
|
26
|
Maharashtra
|
36
|
23
|
Odisha
|
12
|
1
|
Rajasthan
|
5
|
0
|
Tamil Nadu
|
4
|
0
|
Punjab
|
12
|
3
|
Other states Delhi (7), and Chhattisgarh (6).
Where is Congress predicted to get most seats from?
2019
|
2014
| |
Assam
|
7
|
3
|
Chhattisgarh
|
5
|
1
|
Kerala
|
14
|
13
|
Karnataka
|
9
|
9
|
Jharkhand
|
5
|
6
|
Madhya Pradesh
|
5
|
3
|
Maharashtra
|
7
|
4
|
Punjab
|
12
|
3
|
Rajasthan
|
5
|
0
|
Uttar Pradesh
|
4
|
2
|
PM Candidates Approval Ratings:
1st January 2019
|
7th March 2019
| |
Narendra Modi
|
47%
|
62%
|
Rahul Gandhi
|
26%
|
16%
|
India TV - CNX Opinion Poll
No. of total respondents for India TV - CNX Poll: 38,600
Males: 20,455
Females: 18,145
This survey was conducted in 193 parliamentary constituencies
Data was collected from 1st to 7th March 2019
Narendra Modi led BJP will emerge as a single largest party with 238 seats (This is 44 seats less than what BJP had got in 2014).
NDA will get 285 seats as compared to 355 that it had won in 2014.
UPA is likely to win 126 seats as compared to 80 in 2014. The Congress will be 82 seats, gaining 38 seats.
2019 (no. of seats)
|
2014 (no. of seats)
| |
BJP
|
238
|
282
|
NDA
|
285
|
355
|
Congress
|
82
|
44
|
UPA
|
126
|
80
|
Others
|
132
|
Uttar Pradesh prediction:
Bahujan Samajwadi Party: 16
Samajwadi Party: 18
BJP: 40 (In 2014 BJP had won 71 seats)
State wise predictions for BJP and Congress:
BJP
|
Congress
|
Total
| |
Uttarakhand
|
5
|
0
|
5
|
Rajasthan
|
20
|
5
|
25
|
West Bengal
|
12
|
0
|
42
|
Odisha
|
7
|
0
|
21
|
Madhya Pradesh
|
23
|
6
|
29
|
Chhattisgarh
|
6
|
5
|
11
|
Punjab
|
0
|
9
|
13
|
Haryana
|
9
|
1
|
10
|
Bihar
|
15
|
2
|
40
|
Jharkhand
|
8
|
2
|
14
|
Gujarat
|
26
|
0
|
26
|
Himachal Pradesh
|
4
|
0
|
4
|
Maharashtra
|
22
|
9
|
48
|
Goa
|
2
|
0
|
2
|
Tamil Nadu
|
1
|
5
|
39
|
Andhra Pradesh
|
0
|
0
|
25
|
Telangana
|
0
|
2
|
17
|
Karnataka
|
13
|
13
|
28
|
Kerala
|
1
|
0
|
20
|
Jammu & Kashmir
|
2
|
2
|
6
|
Assam
|
8
|
4
|
14
|
Other NE states
|
3
|
3
|
11
|
Delhi
|
7
|
0
|
7
|
Other UT’s
|
4
|
2
|
6
|
Final party wise projections:
BJP: 238
Congress: 82
Trinamool Congress: 30
YSR Congress: 22
SP: 18
BSP: 16
DMK: 16
AIADMK: 12
TRS: 14
Left Front: 6
JDU:12
NCP: 7
RJD: 8
Shiv Sena: 10
BJD: 14
Smaller parties and IND: 38
-----
As per the polls NDA is set to form the government but will marginally fall short of a majority.
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