India is a diverse country with a vast and varied population. India is the most populous country in the world. According to the recently released World Population Review 2024, the most populous cities are located in India and China. The population of Delhi, the 2nd largest city by population in the world is 33,807,403. Recently India has overtaken China in population with over 1.43 billion people. India has a relatively young population.
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| Source - Kerala9.com |
Lok Sabha elections conducted in India every five years are the largest democratic elections in the world. According to the Election Commission of India, the eligible voting population in India is higher than the combined share of the next four largest democracies (US, Indonesia, Brazil, Pakistan).
The electoral outcomes are significantly affected by the demographics of any country. For instance, in India where the percentage of young population is high has an effect on electoral outcomes. The population residing in rural and urban areas also affect the results of elections.
Indian Demographic Landscape
1. Youth Population and its Impact on Elections
India is a country of young people. The young population constitutes 65% of the total population. The median age is around 27 years in India, which indicates a significant proportion of youth. In the 2024 elections, 90 million were new voters. This big number is a major factor determining the electoral outcomes.
The youth can act as a swing factor, their voting decisions can be influenced by various factors such as jobs, price rise, candidate appeal, caste and community. Historically, it has been observed that the voter turnout was low in the initial years after independence, but in recent elections it has reached 68%. This higher number can sway election results.
2. Sex Ratio of India and and Voter Turnout
The distribution of Indian population by gender, is skewed in favour of males. In India the sex ratio is 106.453 males per 100 females. However in some states like Kerala and Tamil Nadu, the sex ratio is more balanced.
The gender ratio of voters has been improving over the years. This shift can lead to a higher turnout among women, which can influence electoral outcomes. The Election Commission of India has started programmes like SVEEP for voter education, awareness, and outreach.
If we talk about the voter turnout of women and men then it was 64.95% compared to 61.95% in these Lok Sabha elections. This trend can lead to a greater influence of women in the electoral process. The number of female candidates contesting Lok Sabha elections has also been increasing. This increase can lead to a more diverse set of candidates and can alter the political landscape.
3. Caste Based Voting Patterns
The caste system is a significant social and demographic factor in India. The data for exact distribution of Indian population by caste is not available. However, a 2019-2021 survey by Statista found that the Scheduled Castes (SCs) and Scheduled Tribes (STs) together accounted for around 24% of the population. Caste based distribution shapes the electoral landscape significantly.
In India still a significant portion of the population prefer political leaders from their own caste. The voting patterns of different caste and community groups have evolved over the years. For instance, the BJP has seen a rise in support among Scheduled Castes (SC) and Scheduled Tribes (ST), while the Congress has experienced a decline in support among these groups. This shift in voting patterns reflects the changing dynamics of caste-based politics. Political parties also prefer selection of candidates on caste considerations in various regions.
4. The Impact of Religious Demographics on Electoral Outcomes
Another factor affecting electoral outcomes is the religious based distribution. According to the 2011 census, Hindus make up 79.8% of India’s 1.2 billion people. Muslims comprise 14.2% of Indians. Christians, Sikhs, Buddhists and Jains together make up 6% of the population. Political parties have to balance the interests, aspirations and needs of diverse religious communities.
The religious demographics of a constituency influences voter preferences. In areas where Muslim population is high, voters tend to support secular parties that cater to their interests and needs.This population distribution by religion also affects the political parties in the country. For example, in West Bengal, the Trinamool Congress has enjoyed the support among muslims, while the Bharatiya Janata Party has historically performed well among hindu voters, particularly in north and central regions of India.
5. Rural Roots and Urban Uplift
The rural population plays a crucial role in Indian elections, particularly in states like Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, and Rajasthan where the rural population is substantial. The urban population, on the other hand, is more diverse and tends to support newer parties. The suburban population, being a mix of rural and urban characteristics, can influence electoral outcomes in various ways. Suburban areas often have a more diverse demographic profile, which can lead to a broader range of political preferences.
The voter turnout is higher in urban areas compared to rural areas. This influences electoral outcomes. In urban areas, voters preferences are based on issues like employment, infrastructure, inflation and education. While in rural areas it is based on agricultural development, policies, social welfare and infrastructure development.
The selection of candidates by various political parties are also influenced by the rural, suburban, and urban demographics of a constituency. Parties choose those candidates who are well-connected to the local population, who can represent the local population, and can effectively address their concerns.
Final Thoughts
Understanding Indian demographics is essential to comprehending the dynamics of Lok Sabha elections. The vast and diverse population of India, segmented by caste, religion, age, gender, and socio-economic status, creates a complex electoral landscape. Political parties must navigate these factors, and form their strategies accordingly to address the concerns of different groups.
Caste and religion have historically played significant roles in shaping voter behaviour, influencing party strategies and electoral outcomes. The increasing voter turnout of women as compared to men is also important. The rural-urban divide highlights priorities of people residing in these areas, with rural voters often focusing on agricultural and social welfare issues, while urban voters emphasise employment, infrastructure, and education.
There can be other factors in India which can help in comprehending the dynamics of elections.
Written By Shivani
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