The Iran Nuclear Plan or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action is an agreement signed between Iran, European Union and P5+1 i.e. 5 permanent members of the UN Council along with Germany.
The deal was endorsed by United Nations Security Council Resolution 2231 and was adopted on October 18th 2015.
The JCPOA deal primarily sheds light on Iran's nuclear plans and its economy.
The plan curtails Iran's nuclear activities to a certain extent which in turn would receive relief from the economic sanctions.
Iran's Compliance would be verified by The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
However, on 8th May 2018, President Donald Trump withdrew from JCPOA plan and reinstated U.S. nuclear sanctions on the Iranian regime.
This put the U.S. in violation under its obligation as per the agreement and thus was a unilateral withdrawal from the deal.
The deal was one of the ultimate diplomatic achievements during Obama's tenure and now stands to be a divisive issue in Washington since its initiation.
Here is a brief timeline of implementation.
1. July 14th 2015, Finalization Day
Determination of the Agreement. This stimulates Iran and the United States to begin inland review processes of JCPOA.
Iran issues details and information to IAEA to survey any past activities related to nuclear weapons development.
2. October 18th 2015, Adoption Day
P5+1 and Iran take measures in order to fully implement JCPOA 90 days after United Nations Security Council Resolution endorsing the deal.
3. January 16th 2016, Implementation Day
IAEA authorizes officially that Iran has followed the procedures as per the deal and have placed strict monitoring.
This instigated United Nations, the United States and European Union to relief sanctions.
4. October 2023, Transition Day
Eight years later (or the IAEA reaching its border conclusion, whichever is sooner). United Nations lift its missile restrictions.
Iran to seek ratification of its additional protocol. EU will terminate all remaining nuclear sanctions.
The US to withdraw certain entities from sanctioned lists and look for legislative termination of certain sections.
5. October 2025, Termination Day
Termination of Resolution 2231 and Security Council closes JCPOA file.
Terms Of JCPOA
To increase the 'breakout time' the agreement states that uranium enrichment must be conducted only at Natanz.
For 15 years level of uranium enrichment capped to 3.67 per cent.
For 10 years operating centrifuges reduced to 5,000 and 1000 more only for research.
Many of the provisions mentioned in JCPOA deal have an expiry date.
For example, restrictions of centrifuge will be lifted after 10 years, and after 15 years limits on low-enriched uranium, it can possess, as well as IAEA's access to undeclared sites.
Other provisions consist of no end date.
Monitoring And Verification
The Iranian Nuclear Plan consists of some open-ended provisions, wherein Iran is bound to norms and ratify an 'additional protocol' to its guarded agreement with IAEA, which permits IAEA inspectors to novel access to Iran's nuclear facility.
Iran being a signatory to the Nonproliferation Deal, is bound not to create any nuclear weapons, but is permitted to pursue nuclear technology for peaceful purpose.
The agency shares quarterly reports to its board of Governors and UN Security Council on Iran's Operations as per the deal.
The representatives of all the negotiating parties of a body known as the Joint Commission are eligible to monitor the implementation of the agreement.
Led by EU foreign policy chief Federica Mogherini, it is appointed with dispute resolution, and the majority vote of its members can gain IAEA inspectors access to sites that are considered shady.
Breaching Of JCPOA Deal
Trump formally withdrew the United States from the deal on 8th May 2018, restoring the banking and oil sanctions.
Trump objected to the inability of the agreement to resolve Iran's ballistic missile programme in the region or its proxy warfare.
Several countries, U.S. allies among them, continued to import Iranian oil under waivers granted by the Trump administration and Iran continued to abide by its commitment after Trump withdrew.
But soon a year later, the United States ended the waivers. This was a tipping point for Iran and it adjudicated that it would no longer comply to the JCPOA on January 5th, 2020.
Iran exceeded its limits on heavy water, enriched uranium stockpile, centrifuges along with the Arak reactor.
Effects Of US Elections
Since Trump administration withdrew from the JCPOA, its governance applied 'maximum pressure' campaign which was an attempt to force Tehran into renegotiating the deal entirely.
Biden has seen the deal as a 'dangerous failure' and has sworn to reverse Trump's withdrawal.
"If Iran moves back into compliance with the nuclear obligation", as he told the council on Foreign Relations in 2019.
Biden wishes to keep the Iranian Government in loophole- to reintegrate, in order to develop good relations with Iran.
He also wishes to make his allies and other countries know that the US is a country you can trust.
However, an end to demanding US stance towards a detente would not be easy.
For one, Iran would ask for compensation for the economic downfall the sanctions caused. Tehran University professor Hassan Ahmadian has argued.
Moreover, according to Ellie Geranmayeh of the Europian Council on Foreign Affairs, Senate Republicans and America's key allies in the region, Israel and Saudi Arabia, will oppose the re-entry of the US into the nuclear deal.
Iran's economic situation is a factor to seek an amicable solution.
At the same time, with the upcoming Iranian presidential elections in the year 2021 and Biden's domestic focus on the pandemic, disrupted JCPOA deal won't revive soon.
Iran feels the 2015 deal obliged to curb the nuclear operations before west could take drastic measures, while it also failed to penalize the US for violating its norms.
As for the current scenario, it is necessary for Biden to call for a phased approach to rejoining the Iran nuclear deal, in order to show progress before the due elections.
If one could say, the situation is fluid.
Written by - Peter Fernandes
Edited by - Christeena George
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