Is history a valid tool to plan the future?



Our present efforts mark our future and an insight into our past wrongdoings can reveal the outcomes of our present actions.

People say, "We love surprises". However, we simply love the surprises which we want, the rest is misery. We all know that life isn't always great; it doesn’t supply us only those bits which we want. It throws every thinkable and unthinkable circumstance at us. We welcome the situations which we love, with our arms wide open and for the unwanted ones, well; we need to plan how to deal with them.

Planning is crucial for every domain, be it a career of an individual or the survival of a race. It not only ensures a trajectory for a smooth flow of our present but also takes care of the bumps which we can encounter during our course.

Humans are habitual creatures. Majority of the tasks performed by us are performed in the same way whenever we repeat them, there is hardly any change. Imagine a person who drives to his office daily. He has two options for his way to the office, both weigh the same. Yet, he takes the same route every day, even though he is not compelled to. In another case, think of a college student. He can sit wherever he wants; however, he sits on the same place daily. Our brains are wired to form habits so that we don't need to go into any different process while going through tasks which we perform daily. The basic lesson of history is that humans are essentially what they have been all throughout history. Our instincts still remain the same. (The Lessons of History)





Often times we keep on replicating the same blunders repeatedly because we are habitual creatures. History provides us a way to reflect on our past mistakes so that we can prepare for our future.

"Those Who Do Not Learn History Are Doomed To Repeat It." - George Santayana.

This famous quote exhibits how history is full of mistakes, and if we don't study them we may end up redoing them. Studying history eliminates actions which could make us fall. We can see various examples which show how one repeats the same blunders.

One such case is of the Patriotic War of 1812. Napoleon Bonaparte marched with an army of 680,000 personnel to invade Russia. On 23rd June, his army crossed the Neman River. The Russian Army kept on retreating using the scorched-earth (burning anything which may be used by the enemy forces) tactics. They burned Smolensk along with other numerous cities. Halfway through September, Napoleon occupied Moscow, which was already burned and deserted by the Russians. He waited for negotiations, which never befell. A month later, he marched forth. It was October now, and the temperature dropped below zero degrees, which Napoleon’s army couldn't compete with. This resulted in a huge loss in army personnel followed by a retreat of Napoleon himself. That's why they said, "Don't invade Russia during the winter".

Next, Hitler's army marched on 22nd June 1941. Similar to Napoleon, Hitler was able to occupy some parts of Russia, until winter struck him. The temperature descended to 40 degrees below zero that year. Both cold and poor tactics resulted in the failure of Hitler, just like what happened with Napoleon. Only if Hitler had learned from the past, we might have heard some different tales.

There are numerous instances when Britishers, Russians, and the Americans tried to occupy Afghanistan, but they couldn't hold it for long. The reason remains the same; it is hard to fight battles on a terrain. Still, multiple countries attempted and lost, over and over.

We can see other situations in which the same problem resulted in a huge economic loss. South Sea Bubble in Georgia, England and the 1929 Wall Street Crash, both resulted in a tremendous economic loss. The cause underlying both was hardly the same, buying stocks on borrowed money, in expectations of earning more money, ending in an overvaluation of shares. Similar to the Wall Street Crash of 1929, The Black Monday of 1987 shared the same result. People panicked, and this resulted in a huge sale of stocks. Eventually, this resulted in a drop in the stock price which was once sky-rocketed. If only people took the previous effects into consideration, the effects might not be this adverse.



It's not just war through which we can learn from our ancestor's mistakes. The circumstances which we face now, have previously been encountered by someone else in the past. Wars on racism, cultural-difference, disease, dictatorship, hatred, greed, they have always been there. Or be it anxiety or depression, our ancestors have faced them all. They not only resolved them but moved it forward to us as well, so that their forthcoming generations don't replicate the same blunders which once they did. That's why I think, “Books are a panacea in this modern world”. We need to read and study the mistakes of the past and improve upon them. We should learn to do better. We should be better.

- Sachin Kumar

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