“The most important thing in politics is results,” he said at a press conference in Tokyo. “If I can’t discharge my responsibility to the people of this country with confidence . . . I should not continue as Prime Minister.” His resignation will take effect as soon as the Liberal Democratic Party chooses a successor.
Abe's departure resembles the seemingly instantaneous decision of his resignation in 2007; a period associated with economic challenges, a pensions disaster, and a political scandal. Abe was first elected to Parliament in 1993, quickly ascending the ladder of the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and becoming the country's youngest-ever leader in 2006. He returned to office, for an unprecedented second term, in 2012. He had argued that his initial failure in politics had motivated him to "give everything for Japan”.
His policies, while not of a ‘headline-grabbing’ nature, have and will have a lasting effect, according to experts. His policies included a contentious expansion of Japan’s military defenses, a persistent effort to cultivate closer ties with its neighbours, the US, and even Russia and one of countering the threats of a powerful China and a nuclear-armed North Korea.
Japan was in recession preceding the emergence of COVID-19 as a pandemic, and consequently, its economy suffered its biggest slump on record in the second quarter. The empty shopping malls, slashed demand for cars, reduced production, and other such indicators collectively manifested themselves into the slump seen in the graphs of Japan’s GDP. Additionally, hope from the industry of tourism for economic revival for the country remains bleak since the Summer Olympic Games have been postponed until 2021. Abe’s departure, also coinciding with a time of his diminishing popularity and being extensively critiqued at his incompetence at tackling the effects of the pandemic, will not only trigger a leadership race but will also intensify the struggle of the Japanese citizens in their attempt to tackle Covid-19, pronounce the effects of a severe economic downturn and aggravate the ongoing disputes with China and South Korea.
The succession to Mr. Abe will probably depend on whether the LDP conducts a full leadership election, a process wherein regional party officials can vote, or a quick vote among parliamentarians, considering the COVID situation. In a full election, strong candidates include Fumio Kishida, the LDP’s policy chief, and Shigeru Ishiba, the former defence minister. On the other hand, if a quick election, restricted to the members of the parliament, is conducted, Yoshihide Suga, the chief cabinet secretary, assumes a position of being considered a prime contender.
Suga has been at the heart of Abe’s government and is regarded as a formidable, behind-the-scenes political operator. Given the effects of the pandemic, most analysts believe that there will be no immediate change to Abe’s stimulative economic policies and may even have the prospects of being promoted and amplified with additional economic stimulus by his successor. From the political front, strong alliances, and from the fiscal front, a reduction in the budget deficit should be the main priorities of the elected successor.
Abe’s tenure as a Prime Minister has been approached with conflicting views. Some experts say that Abe's period in the office should not be written off as a failure while others believe that he failed to grapple with some of the longer-term challenges facing Japan such as those of its rapidly shrinking and ageing population, a disproportionately large number of males in office as compared to females, climate change, and his leaving Japan still heavily dependent on coal-fired power.
Others see Abe as one who gave Japan a renewed sense of confidence. “Abe has made his mark in transforming the policy environment surrounding security,” said Professor Rikki Kersten, an expert in Japanese politics at Murdoch University in Australia. “He's institutionalised change. In times of crisis or threat, the security policy is now the policy area where Japan is able to respond rapidly and effectively because it has overcome the bureaucratic hurdles that bedevil every other area. That will not be undone.”
Thus, Japan finds itself in a sea of uncertainty and unpredictability. Navigating through such tumultuous waves of political, economic, financial, and societal turmoil, many have high expectations from Shinzo Abe’s successor.
Written By - Saumya Seth
Edited By - Sravanthi Cheerladinne
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