The future of Yemen appears uncertain and dangerous. I can say that all scenarios that might lead to some form of relative stability do not seem feasible, and the most likely scenario is the controlled chaos scenario. Scenarios in their general meaning are like maneuvers carried out by armies, by creating a virtual reality for imagined battles, and training military forces to deal with them.
Of course, the maneuvers would be impossible to match with real battles. The desired benefit of presenting the scenarios is to bring the proposed ideas and projects closer together by imagining their occurrence and then clarifying their results. This paper aims to present some of the scenarios that Yemen could go through and be more stable or more chaotic than it is now.
Stability Phase Scenarios in Yemen
What we mean by stability in these scenarios is a decrease in the frequency of violence through the following:
Central government control over all of Yemen or two governments.
Lifting the blockade of the sea, air, and land ports.
Protection of Yemeni sovereignty by local forces recognized by the international community regarding the Yemeni issue.
And the word stability generalizes it all, be it political stability, economic, educational, or financial stability.
Settlement Scenario
This scenario is based on the formation of authority for a transitional period that includes all parties to the conflict in Yemen. This authority includes a president by consensus, or a vice president by consensus, whereby the powers of the president of the republic are transferred to him in full. Then a government is formed from all parties. And after the formation of this government.
The Following Tips Should Be Implemented.
The siege imposed on Yemen is lifted
The sanctions imposed by the Security Council on a number of persons affiliated with some of the parties to the conflict shall be canceled
The external military intervention ends
Houthis Victory Scenario
This scenario is based on the premise that Yemen is relatively stable, violence and chaos recedes relatively. Moreover, the war, in its current form ends if the Houthis control all of Yemen or most of the strategic areas. Thus, accordingly, obtain recognition from the outside world as a legitimate authority over all of Yemen or part of it.
Additionally, this scenario has more than a way to happen. For instance, the futility of continuing the war, due to its high economic, political, and moral cost. So Saudi Arabia takes the decision to stop the war through an agreement with the Houthis. This agreement includes recognition of them as the ruling authority of Yemen.
On the other hand, Saudi Arabia achieves part of the war’s objectives. For example, the Houthis refraining from attacking Saudi territory, entering into a friendly relationship with Saudi Arabia, severing their relationship with Iran, or breaking the alliance with it.
The Separation Scenario
This scenario is an extension of the previous scenario. According to this scenario, Yemen will be re-divided into two states as it was before unity. In the north, there is a government for the Houthis, and in the south, there is a government under the sole Saudi or in partnership with the Emirates.
This scenario is proposed by the separatists, directly and indirectly. According to them, the original problem of Yemen is the establishment of unity, which they believe was not established on correct foundations. So they think that it is better for the region to re-divide Yemen into two parts as they were before the declaration of unity in 1990.
The Federal Yemen Scenario
Since the fall of President Saleh's regime, voices have been calling for a change in the form of the Yemeni state to a federal state. The justifications behind these were that the federal state would weaken the claims for the secession of the south. In addition, according to the supporters of federalism, it would solve the problem of political, financial, and administrative centralization, which is seen as the essence of the Yemeni problem.
The scenario of the federal state means completing the transitional phase from its stopping point due to the war started in 2015. The process of doing so should be as follow:
holding a referendum on the constitution
parliamentary and local elections
dividing the country into 6 regions
holding presidential elections
End the transitional phase and begin with the permanent phase.
To me, It is clear that to implement the scenario of the federal state; a comprehensive and final victory is required for President Hadi and the ruling coalition.
The Central State Scenario
Despite the legal status of the political system in Yemen remains a simple central state. However, this option is no longer openly and directly presented by all political forces.
The realization of the central state scenario requires a political project similar to the project (Mustafa Ataturk) at the end of the Ottoman Empire after the First World War and the (General Franco) project in Spain during the Spanish Civil War in the 1930s.
The only opportunity for this scenario to materialize if the countries concerned about the stability of Yemen are satisfied with their support for such a project. Saudi Arabia may be one of these countries. This project gives Saudi Arabia the chance to get out of the cycle of war in Yemen, by supporting a central authority that defeats the current forces or contains them in a national project that goes beyond their small projects and creates the necessary stability in this country.
Read more about Worst and best-case scenarios for Yemen
Future Trends
Since the matter is as such, the realistic solution to the return of stability to Yemen will only be through the project of a central state that absorbs all disruptive projects, and religious projects by force, and politics. In addition, it stands in front of harmful foreign interventions, which want to use Yemen to strike at its opponents, or a region to implement the delusions of some rulers.
Conclusion
The impacts of the war in Yemen over the past six years have separated the state’s territory into small parts. Thus, all political components have to be united, and the implementation of such a solution is extremely complex. We always needed a permanent peace to be achieved for Yemeni but the current policies of the government and its alliances tell us that the war will remain in Yemen for the next coming years.
Read about: The Dilemma of the War in Yemen
Written By - Mr. Hassan
Edited By - Neha Kundu
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