On February 1, the Myanmar's army carried a swift operation and wiped
out a decade of the country’s democratic set-up, turning a partial democracy
into a full-fledged military rule, yet again.
On the night of January 31, President Win Myint, State Counsellor Aung
San Suu Kyi and the rest of the ruling National League for Democracy (NLD)
leadership were arrested by the military.
Next day morning, the TV channels went off-air, internet activity slowed
down, telecom networks were suspended and the General Min Aung Hlaing through
the military TV channel announced that the army has taken control over the
nation for a year and he is not particularly concerned about the opposition to
or condemnation of the move.
In 1962, 1988 and 1990, similar drastic actions were taken by
Myanmar's military establishment to overthrow a democratic government or derail
people’s expressed choices.
After the free and fair general elections in 2015, people in Myanmar
were optimistic that the country could finally move in the direction of
democratic and economic development.
But unfortunately, the history has been repeated and the country is
again under the control of generals.
Many countries in the World have condemned this military coup,
including India. But the citizens of Myanmar do not depend only on the
international community.
Just a day after the military coup, people all over Myanmar started a
civil disobedience movement.
Doctors and other civil servants refused to work under the military
and other citizens protested from their home by banging utensils and shouting
slogans to show their defiance against the military.
Military's
Reasons for Coup
The Myanmar's military claimed that there was “terrible fraud in the
voter list" in the general or parliamentary elections held in November
2020, which led to the landslide victory of NLD again.
Moreover, to explain the military's action, its spokesman said that
the Election Commission “failed to settle the matter" and he also added
that this development would “obstruct the path to democracy".
By claiming above reasons, the army declared an emergency,
transferring all powers to Commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing.
Myanmar's military also charged Suu Kyi for illegally importing Walkie-Talkies,
basically any excuse to arrest her.
Coup Just Before
the First Session of Newly Elected Assembly
On February 1, the newly elected assembly was due to meet in the
country's capital, Naypyidaw, despite the army's claims of electoral fraud.
Ms. Suu Kyi had refused to bow to General Hlaing's demand that the
results, which also saw the military's proxy in parliament, Union Solidarity
and Development Party (USDP), be set aside.
The military which constitutionally retains Defense, Borders and
Interior portfolios and also grabs 25% of parliamentary seats, thought it was
better to set aside the elected NLD government before it increased its
influence.
And as a result, the Generals took the charge of the country hours
before the new assembly was due to hold its first session in parliament.
This shows that the negotiations between the army and the NLD
government to resolve the differences may have continued to the last minute
when Ms. Suu Kyi disagreed with the demands of Mr. Hlaing, the break-up between
two political elites became inevitable.
Context Before
2020 General Elections
Before the general elections of November 2020, the State Counsellor
Aung San Suu Kyi was unpopular internationally as she refused to rein in the
Generals when the army unleashed a massacre on the Rohingya Muslims between
2016-2017.
Not only Rohingya Muslims but also non-bamar people (minority ethnic
groups) were disappointed by Ms. Suu Kyi as she did not have the powers to keep
the promise of federalism that her father, General Aung San (Myanmar’s Father
of Nation) made.
The business community was also unsatisfied with her as the economic
reforms had slowed down.
Therefore, this was the golden opportunity for the military. They had
turned powerful even though they did not hold any power.
The military was having 25% seats in the parliament and they had
organized campaigns against Rohingyas, for which they had faced sanctions but
still it was Aung San Suu Kyi who faced the fire.
Moreover, the military’s commercial interest had been improving after
the opening up of the economy.
If the Myanmar military had been in a great position, why did they
carry out a coup?
Actual Reasons
Behind the Coup
1. Popularity of Suu Kyi Among Bamar People
The Myanmar military presumed that NLD would not win the November 2020
general elections because Aung San Suu Kyi had not been much popular during the
elections.
So, the military had reasons to hope that its political party will
outperform NLD at the elections. But it didn’t go that way.
Contrary to the army's presumptions, Suu Kyi’s party outperformed its
own results of the 2015 elections.
The most embarrassing fact for the military was that USDP, the
military-backed party, lost to NLD in the districts that were primarily
occupied by the military.
It clearly shows that many military personnel and their families voted
for NLD.
The popularity of Ms. Suu Kyi among Bamar people as she defended her
country at the International Criminal Court regarding the Rohingya genocide of
2017, must had increased tensions in the army because now with the support of
Bamar people she could lead a revolt against the military.
2. Sense of Entitlement to Power
The two political elites are obviously fighting for power but the
army, which had ruled 50 years out of 70 years of the country's independence,
has been used to exercising power for long, which gives it huge economic
dividends too.
Therefore, the military has a sense of entitlement and playing a
secondary role to elected representatives of the people was a difficult job for
it.
Aung San Suu Kyi has been a staunch democrat and has also expressed
admiration for the military (nurtured and established by her father) but she
always wanted a system in which the military should be completely apolitical.
3. Constitution Change
In March 2020, NLD proposed reforms to make some changes in the
nation’s constitution. Although, it was sure that these reforms which were
meant to decrease the Army's power could never be implemented because 25%of the
seats in the parliament are guaranteed to the military.
So, it is believed that Aung San Suu Kyi’s move to amend the
constitution was just to gain publicity and the military did not approve of the
fact that she would jeopardize the military's power.
4. China
Some people believe that the military coup was backed by silent
Beijing. But according to experts China did not want this coup to occur.
All the ethnic insurgencies occurring in Myanmar against the military
are confined to the Northern region and the military believe that these
insurgencies are being supported by China.
Military also disliked the move that China made to give a red-carpet
welcome to Suu Kyi after she won the November 2020 elections.
And the military did not like the fact that the diplomatic bond
between Suu Kyi and China had been flourishing.
5. Personal Interests of Commander-in-Chief
The Commander-in-Chief of Myanmar’s army General Min Aung Hlaing is
due to retire from the army in July.
According to some experts, he fears prosecution for the Rohingya
genocide carried out by army in 2017 and Aung San Suu Kyi will support his
persecution.
To prevent this from happening and to maintain the stronghold of the
military in Myanmar, he could have ordered the coup.
Presidential ambitions of General Hlaing constitute a relevant issue.
Back in 2016 and even now he nurtured the dream of becoming President which was
disliked by Suu Kyi and she was unwilling to extend his tenure.
Presumably the recent coup guarantees an indefinite extension of his
tenure.
Nationwide Strike
Despite the internet blackout, almost 1,00,000 protestors poured onto
the streets across Myanmar demanding the release of ousted leader Aung San Suu
Kyi, in the biggest anti-coup rally yet.
There were reports of large demonstrations across the country, from
Muse on the Chinese border on the Southern cities of Dawei and Hpa-an,
condemning the coup that brought Myanmar’s 10-year experiment with democracy to
a crashing halt.
Written By - Sanjana Yadav
Edited by - Adrija Saha
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